Florida and Wisconsin Elections: What to Know as Democrats Hope to Rally

Candidates in Florida and Wisconsin on Monday made their final pushes for victory in high-stakes elections that could reshape the ideological balance of the U.S. House of Representatives and a state's Supreme Court as Republicans fight to retain power and Democrats look to chip away at GOP control.

Why It Matters

Republicans hold a narrow majority in the U.S. House, which is a top concern for President Donald Trump who this week said Representative Elise Stefanik of New York will remain in Congress rather than join his administration in an effort to preserve the GOP's advantage.

Voters will cast ballots in two special elections in Florida on April 1 that could further shape the balance of power in the U.S. House where Republicans currently hold a 218-213 majority. The outcome could either strengthen the GOP's lead or allow Democrats to narrow the margin, which could complicate efforts by House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, to advance key parts of Trump's agenda.

In Wisconsin, voters will choose a state Supreme Court justice in what has become the most expensive judicial race in U.S. history, with opponents and major political allies of the president pouring money into the contest, most notably billionaire Elon Musk.

The elections come just over two months after Trump returned to office and serve as an early test of public sentiment toward his presidency and the Republican Party who also has a majority in the Senate.

Florida Special Election

The two vacancies, Florida's 1st and 6th Congressional District, were created after Republican Matt Gaetz resigned after initially being considered for Trump's U.S. attorney general and former Representative Mike Waltz was tapped to serve as Trump's national security adviser.

The Sunshine State, where Trump is a resident, is considered a GOP stronghold in recent years. The state backed Trump in the 2024 election with more than 6.1 million votes, or over 56 percent. The Cook Political Report's partisan voting index (PVI) classifies both districts as Republican-favored, with FL-1 as R+22 and FL-6 R+7. Waltz's former district is considered more competitive, in which state Senator Randy Fine is the Trump-backed candidate running against Josh Weil.

Early voting data on the race shows Republicans having turnout advantages in both races.

In the more competitive race to replace Waltz, 47,403 Republicans turned out during early voting or voted by mail compared to 38,107 Democrats, according to data from the Florida Division of Elections.

An additional 13,766 nonpartisan voters have cast a ballot so far, while 1,659 people registered with other parties have voted.

How independent voters skew and whether there will be a significant number of crossover voters will be two crucial questions heading in Tuesday's election.

In Florida's 1st Congressional District, Republicans have a 17-point gap. A total of 43,402 registered Republicans have turned out, compared to 28,041 registered Democrats. An additional 11,649 voters who are either unaffiliated or registered with other parties have voted.

Weil told Newsweek in a statement on Monday that he believes his campaign has "grassroots energy that is going to defeat career politician Randy Fine and the huge corporations and special interests that own him and his campaign."

Republicans will retain control of the House either way, but the elections will determine the size of their majority, with John Feehery, a Republican strategist and partner at EFB Advocacy, telling Newsweek in an email on Friday: "The House races are high stakes for Republicans purely because they need some extra cushion when it comes to vote-counting in the House."

Last week, Trump announced that Stefanik, who was nominated to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, will remain in the House instead as Trump said it is "essential that we maintain EVERY Republican seat in Congress."

Feehery told Newsweek he was "surprised" by the move, noting that "clearly they [Republicans] are worried about the Florida races. And they probably should be."

Ben Nuckels, a Democrat strategist and founding partner of Nuckels Media Partners, told Newsweek in an email that the president's move to keep Stefanik in the House "is bad news for the Republicans."

"Trump clearly understands the perilous position of the GOP house majority and the fact the GOP might lose this very red district in Florida. Trump's actions to pull the nomination are a clear indicator of how worried he is about losing ruby red seats," he said.

Nuckels, reflecting on the larger political picture, added: "In the 14 special elections so far this year, Democrats are performing roughly 10% better than they did at the top of the ticket in 2024. The last time we saw that kind of overperformance was back in 2017, which led to Democrats retaking the U.S. House the following year."

Special elections have taken place at the federal and state level across the country and often see low voter turnout, yielding some surprising results. Last week, Democrats were able to flip a normally solid conservative state Senate seat in a Pennsylvania ballot.

On Saturday, Trump used his social media platform, Truth Social, to urge Floridians to vote for his endorsed candidates, Jimmy Patronis and Fine, praising their support for his Make America Great Again (MAGA) agenda.

How Much Has Been Donated In The Florida Races?

The races have drawn millions in donations, with Democratic candidates Gay Valimont and Weil in the 1st and 6th District respectively, having outraised their Trump-backed Republican opponents, Patronis and Fine.

Weil reported raising $10 million for his congressional bid, with Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings showing nearly $8.9 million raised between January 9 and March 12.

By comparison, Fine raised less than $1 million between November 26, 2024, and March 3. Weil also has more than $1.2 million in cash on hand heading into Tuesday's race, while Fine has just over $92,600.

Valimont brought in $6.4 million from January 9 to March 12, well surpassing Patronis' $1.1 million during the same period.

What Do Polls Show in Florida?

Polling for the special elections remains limited, but Feehery believes both Republican candidates will win.

However, he told Newsweek that "in special elections, the out-of-power party tends to do better because their aggrieved base is naturally more fired up. This is especially the case because the Democrats tend to trend more upscale, and the more upscale voters tend to vote more frequently and pay attention more to politics."

Some Republican leaders have expressed doubts on Fine's ability to secure the race, including the state's Governor Ron DeSantis who said on Tuesday that while the Republican is likely to win, he believes they won't get "even close to the margins that I received or the president received."

A survey of 403 likely voters in in the 6th district conducted by St. Pete Poll from March 22 to March 25 found Fine with a narrow lead, receiving support from 48.3 percent of the vote compared to 44.2 percent of respondents who said they plan to vote for Weil. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Wisconsin Supreme Court Race

Wisconsin's Supreme Court race has shattered fundraising records and drawn major out-of-state influence. The contest between conservative Brad Schimel and liberal Judge Susan Crawford will decide whether the court maintains its 4–3 liberal majority or flips to conservative control, with potential implications for abortion, redistricting, and other key issues in the closely divided state.

More than 644,000 people cast their ballots early in Wisconsin, according to the Associated Press. That is 57 percent higher than the state's last Supreme Court election in 2023.

"Wisconsin is at the epicenter of the political world right now because the state Supreme Court battle is a national proxy war for the parties and the first major political test of Elon Musk and his bottomless pockets," Nuckels told Newsweek, noting Musk's heavy influence in the race.

Musk, who is the CEO of Tesla, has a notable interest in Wisconsin, with Tesla currently suing the state over a law that requires manufacturers to sell vehicles through independent dealerships.

When asked if he would recuse himself from a Tesla case, if it reaches the top state court, Schimel told Fox News Sunday host Shannon Bream on Sunday, "I'll look at the lawsuit, if I have a problem that I can't be objective in that case, then I'll recuse from that case."

Related to Musk and Telsa, he added that "if he's [Musk] thinking he's supporting the person that is going to strike down statutes left and right, he's supporting the wrong candidate."

Musk traveled to Wisconsin over the weekend to hand out two $1 million checks to voters who backed his petition against "activist judges." His event on Saturday was disrupted by a heckler. He also held a rally in Green Bay on Sunday night in a last-minute push to get his preferred candidate over the top.

Nuckels also told Newsweek that "the winner of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race is high stakes for Wisconsin voters concerned about abortion rights, fairness on the court, and public safety."

How Much Has Been Donated in the Wisconsin Race?

Nearly $80 million has poured into the race, with several billionaires among the top contributors for both candidates. Musk, the world's wealthiest person, has provided a significant portion of Schimel's funding, individually and through political groups including America PAC and Building America's Future, which have spent at least $10 million, the Associated Press reported.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reported that Musk has spent $19.3 million in support of Schimel.

Crawford has received millions in support from billionaires George Soros and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, among others.

Nuckels said the race is "also a giant flashing red light for the Republican Party if billionaire broligarch Elon Musk and his $20 million investment were not able to buy off an election."

What Do Polls Show in Wisconsin?

Polls show that voters are split over who to back in the Supreme Court race. But some have given Crawford a small lead.

The most recent poll from Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group also showed Crawford with a slight lead, receiving 51 percent support from respondents to Schimel's 49 percent. It polled 1,083 likely voters from March 28-30 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

An earlier poll by SoCal Strategies, conducted from March 25-26 among 500 registered and likely voters, gave Crawford a 50-42 lead over Schimel. The poll did not report its margin of error.

A poll of 600 likely votes conducted by OnMessage Inc. between March 9 and 10 found that the candidates were tied, both receiving 47 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Last month, a Marquette poll found voters are unfamiliar with both candidates. Thirty-eight percent of respondents said they don't know enough about Schimel to make a decision about whether they view him favorably, while 58 percent said they don't know enough about Crawford to form an opinion. The survey of 864 Wisconsin voters was conducted between February 19 and 26, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

What Happens Next?

Early voting has wrapped up in both states, with in-person voting set to take place on Tuesday. Polls in Florida will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. local time. Polls will close in Wisconsin at 8 p.m. local time.

Update 3/30/25, 5:55 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.

Update 3/30/25, 3:50 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with additional information.