Will New Jersey be hit with a hurricane this year? A top forecast for 2025 is here

Hurricane researchers are predicting another active Atlantic hurricane season, with as many as 17 possible storms and at least one hurricane that could impact New Jersey, according to experts from Colorado State University.

Long considered the most respected of hurricane forecasts, the CSU research team released their initial predictions last week, stating that nine of those storms could become hurricanes, with four expected to develop into major hurricanes at Category 3 strength or above. A typical year averages about 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to data from the CSU team from 1991 to 2020.

The expected busy season is due to warmer-than-normal temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and the unlikely return of El Niño conditions by the season's peak.

CSU's outlook is one of several major forecasts for the hurricane season that will publish this spring; AccuWeather's forecast came out last week, and NOAA will release theirs in late May.

Will a hurricane hit NJ in 2025? See chances of hurricane in 2025 in NJ

According to Colorado State's forecast, there is a 28% chance of at least one named storm impacting New Jersey this season, and a 9% chance it is a hurricane. There is a 1% chance that the hurricane will be considered major (Category 3, 4 or 5).

The early Accuweather forecast predicts the Gulf Coast and the Carolinas are at the highest risk for direct impact, although it's possible a hurricane could impact South Jersey.

When does 2025 Atlantic hurricane season begin?

Hurricane season officially begins June 1, although storms have formed in May in recent years. The hurricane season, which last six months, ends Nov. 30. The "peak" of hurricane season typically falls on Sept. 10, according to Accuweather.

List of names for 2025 Atlantic hurricane season

Storms receive a name when they reach tropical storm strength, with sustained winds of at least 39 mph, according to the World Meteorological Organization, who maintains a naming system. Once a storm reaches winds of 74 mph, the storm is a hurricane.

The list of hurricane names covers 21 letters of the alphabet; Q, U, X, Y, and Z are excluded because there are not enough names beginning with those letters. Names for each season are determined in advance, and English, French and Spanish names are used "in balance" to reflect the geographical coverage of Atlantic and Caribbean storms, the WHO said.

Here's the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season names:

• Andrea
• Barry
• Chantal
• Dexter
• Erin
• Fernand
• Gabrielle
• Humberto
• Imelda
• Jerry
• Karen
• Lorenzo
• Melissa
• Nestor
• Olga
• Pablo
• Rebekah
• Sebastien
• Tanya
• Van
• Wendy

Want to know how to say each name? Here's the pronunciation guide from NOAA.

List of hurricanes that have hit NJ

Due to its location, few hurricanes have hit the Garden States directly, although several have devastated the state, leading to numerous deaths, extreme storm surges, damages in the billions and massive power outages.

Superstorm Sandy devastated New Jersey on Oct. 12, 2012, making landfall along the Jersey Shore and bringing heavy rains, 80 mph sustained winds and record-breaking storm surge. Streets were flooded, houses knocked off their foundations and trees and powerlines toppled.

Sandy took 38 New Jersey lives, cut power to 2 million and caused $30 billion in economic losses.

The remnants of Hurricane Ida ripped through the Garden State in September 2021, killing at least 30 people. In August 2011, Hurricane Irene slammed into the state, causing major power outages and brought torrential rains and flooding, breaking crests on rivers. Seven people died in the state, according to NOAA.

Other major hurricanes that impacted New Jersey were Tropical Storm Floyd (September 1999); Hurricane Donna (September 1960); and hurricanes Diane and Connie, which hit back-to-back in August 1955.

Odds a major hurricane will hit the East Coast in 2025?

The East Coast has a 26% chance of getting hit by at least one major (Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane, which is above the average 21%, according to records from 1880 to 2020. Major hurricanes have wind speeds of at least 111 mph.

Odds a major hurricane will hit U.S. in 2025?

There is a 51% chance a major hurricane (Category 3, 4 or 5) will make landfall somewhere along the U.S. coastline, according to Colorado State researchers. The average, based on records from 1880 to 2020, is 43%.

How many hurricanes in 2024?

There were 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, according to NOAA.

Not only is having 11 hurricanes in one season rare (it's only happened eight other seasons since 1851), but so is having five in one season, as is having two Category 5s, which has only happened five other years since 1950, according to CSU tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach.

In October, Hurricane Milton reached Category 5 intensity and made an unusual eastward track across the Gulf of America, making landfall in western Florida. Beryl was the earliest Category 5 hurricane last year, which was followed by Debby (Category 1), Francine (Category 2) and Helene (Category 4).

Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.