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    PM Narendra Modi expands on his foreign policy vision of India as a strategic global player

    Synopsis

    Modi's foreign policy vision is driven by a desire to make India a major economic and strategic player in shaping the new Asian century.

    PM ModiAgencies
    PM interacts with Indian CEOs in Davos
    Do you know how this year is different and special,” asks Rahul Bajaj, India’s oldest delegate at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

    “Historically, the plenary always begins in the evening. But just to adjust with Prime Minister Modi’s frantic schedule, they have agreed to do it on Tuesday at 11 am,” explains the Davos veteran of 39 years, standing outside the hotel lobby as heads of governments, heavy-hitting CEOs, thought leaders, liberals, pop icons and even snow — the most in two decades — decided to descend upon the ski resorts of Davos-Klosters. “This goes to show how strategic India and Modi is to the WEF.”

    This, of course, is apart from an Indian Prime Minister attending Davos after two decades.

    Modi, quite literally, has been snowed under. If you thought January is a lean period in global diplomacy, this year began with an unusually hectic calendar and two bold moves — an invitation to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and hosting all 10 ASEAN leaders for the Republic Day celebrations as chief guests to mark the 25th anniversary of the Asia Pacific club.

    In between, Modi has managed to squeeze in a whistle stop at Davos that saw him laugh with 64 global and Indian chief executives at a closed door private dinner; address the plenary session and the WEF’s International Business Council of another top 120 corporate leaders from around the globe and have bilateral meetings with top leaders of Switzerland, Canada and Zimbabwe.

    Such globetrotting meant Modi skipping the premier foreign policy platform, Raisina Dialogue (January 16-18), but in its third year — with experts from traditionally opposite sides like the US and NATO allies and Russia attending — the brainstorming has gathered much heft. More importantly, it underscores the balanced approach being pursued by the Indian foreign policy establishment.

    “India is at the global centre stage,” quips Chandrajit Banerjee, director general, Confederation of Indian Industry. “Expectations are huge. The world is appreciative of its efforts and wants to engage. In February, the Canadian state visit will be crucial and a huge business, political delegation will be visiting, followed by the French head of state.”

    Modi is expected to host French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. The International Solar Alliance (ISA) Summit — coinciding with Macron’s visit — will see a host of other international leaders who have joined ISA. The Indian Ocean partnership will top Macron’s trip.
    Modi is also expected to visit Kathmandu, the UAE, Palestine and Oman in February while he will travel to London for his first Commonwealth Summit in April. The King of Jordan may come calling in February as well. Two months later, Singapore, the ASEAN chair in 2018, will likely host Modi on June 1 for the Shangrila Dialogue. A trip to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit is also due.

    In the latter half of 2018, the PM travels to South Africa for the BRICS Summit; Argentina for the G-20 Summit and Singapore for East Asia and India-ASEAN summits. Annual meetings with key allies Japan and Russia are also due as are visits by the Saudi King and Iranian President (both in February-March).
    A senior government official who did not wish to be quoted said, “China is competing fiercely with India for influence in the subcontinent and Pakistan is perpetually hostile. Modi’s diplomatic blitzkrieg is a crafty firewall.”

    BFFs & FRENEMIES
    So what is the significance of Netanyahu’s visit and the presence of all ASEAN leaders beyond headlines? The fact that Israel and ASEAN are part of India’s extended western and eastern neighbourhood — and therefore critical for Delhi’s geopolitics — cannot be over-emphasised.

    As India make strides to modernise economy, strengthen defence infrastructure and create an ecosystem of state-of-the art technology, Israel has a critical role. In the words of another official who did not wish to be quoted, Israel can be the answer to a wide array of technology that India needs for growth. What is now imperative is to build upon back-to-back visits by Modi and Netanyahu.

    The Indian PM desires to use his good offices with both Israelis and Palestinians to contribute to peace in West Asia. It is not only politically correct, but also a matter of timing that Modi has decided to visit Palestine less than a month after Netanyahu’s trip.

    Modi’s foreign policy vision is integrated with his domestic agenda, notes former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal. “The focus on development, modernisation, ease of doing business, campaigns such as Digital India, Start Up India, Skill India, Make in India aims also to secure India’s interests in an unfolding uncertain and competitive world. The goal is widening the pool of supportive countries through constructive positions on issues on global agenda.”

    “Initiating the ISA reflects this,” feels Sibal. “Leveraging India’s civilisational heritage to advance foreign policy objectives and knitting with the diaspora is part of the vision too. Promoting our security in the Indian Ocean, managing our difficult neighbourhood, dealing firmly with Pakistan on terrorism, revitalising our Act East policy, strengthening bonds with the US and Japan, engaging Europe, building stronger links with the Gulf countries, fully normalising ties with Israel, preserving the closeness of ties with Russia and both standing up to (at Dokalam) and engaging with China are other elements.”
    Modi’s foreign policy vision is driven by a desire to make India a major economic and strategic player in shaping the new Asian century and also to place New Delhi at high table. All his foreign policy actions are directed towards this.

    In this context, the ASEAN gathering is nothing short of a coup, according to a government official who is well-versed with the dynamics of South East Asia.
    The presence of Chinese diaspora and Beijing’s mega initiatives for South East Asia have drawn some countries closer to China. Notwithstanding this, ASEAN countries are desirous of a wider Indian presence in the region to balance power dynamics. It is only befitting that the Modi government decided to celebrate 25 years of partnership with ASEAN coinciding with the Republic Day celebrations, an official said, the right message to maintaining ASEAN centrality.

    DEALING WITH THE DRAGON
    China is and will remain a major challenge for Indian foreign policy. “Beijing does not hide its ambition to become a great power,” noted Arvind Gupta, director, Vivekananda International Foundation and former deputy national security advisor. “It is becoming assertive. Its hegemonic tendencies need to be watched. India should reduce capability asymmetries with respect to China. Rise of China will make India relook its foreign policy. India will need to strengthen its Act East Policy and shape the Indo-Pacific concept.”

    The competitive tension between the two Asian giants for influence is already playing out in the subcontinent. In December, Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi said China “disapproves” of spheres of influence in international affairs. The indirect swipe was for all to read.

    In the same month, in Sri Lanka, a 99 year old lease of a strategic port was granted to a Chinese company with direct links to the Communist regime. In Nepal, the political alliance that swept the polls has been campaigning for closer ties with China at the cost of historical ties with India. A month earlier, Maldives became the second South Asian country after Pakistan to ratify a free trade agreement with China. As per the exiled former President Mohamed Nasheed, China alone holds 75% of Maldives’ debt and military, commercial and diplomatic ties between the two have grown exponentially.

    The scale, scope and speed at which Beijing was encircling India seemed unprecedented to many observers. From Bhutan to Central Asia, its expansionist policies made many sit up and notice. “When it comes to influence and economic supremacy, we are nowhere close to China,” argues Anil Agarwal, chairman, Vedanta Resources. “They are far bigger in scale. They will overtake the US too. But we finally have a PM who wants to leave a lasting legacy. So we will be far more assertive than before."

    In Davos, this was true for all to see as Modi wooed the global audience with his vision of a new, inclusive India.

    Positioning himself as global statesman — and India as a soft power that is democratic at heart, multi-cultural in spirit, multi-dimensional but the fierce defender of an open global order — Modi warns against the rise of new forms of tariff and non-tariff barriers and the slowing in cross-border flows of investment. His defence of globalisation was a passive aggressive rebuke to Trump’s ‘America first’ policies as well as its scepticism on signing up for climate change agreements.

    The WEF plenary speech, had passive aggressive barbs aimed at Chinese President Xi Jinping as well, observers felt. Modi stressed on common human destinies: “A thousand years ago, Hindu texts used a Sanskrit phrase, Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam, which means the world is one family. That belief is key to eradicate the fault lines of today.” He emphasised that India had no territorial ambitions and that it never sought to exploit the natural resources of other nations.

    Both salesmen-in-chief heads of states have leveraged the strategic Davos platform it to the maximum. Last year, Xi had been special invitee and gave a rousing speech championing free trade and open market access.

    “Modi’s speech was smart, astute and changes the rules of engagement,” quipped Anand Mahindra, chairman, Mahindra Group. “We are in awe of the Chinese story but not their methods,” added Bajaj. “We should be our own and not ape that model.”

    With the US abdicating its premier role with respect to shaping global foreign policy narratives since the Obama administration, the likes of Russia, China and India are trying to fill that void. “China has been at this game for far longer — with aggressive trade, financing, commercial and bilateral partnerships, the Silk Route Initiatives and sheer size of its GDP. Modi has a lot of catching up,” said a global CEO with business interests in both countries, who attended Modi’s private dinner in Davos on Monday night. “In the various interactions, both private and public, Modi seemed more humble and aspirational. But both premiers fancy themselves as transformational.”

    However, FICCI secretary general Sanjaya Baru, says Davos is a missed opportunity as the Prime Minister does not have a compelling story to tell. “In 1992, India was opening up its economy and that was perfect timing.”

    China’s influence on Europe is far stronger today with the One Belt-One Road Initiative. “Xi was convincing at a time when Trump was unsettling everyone and turned everything on its head…. It was a master stroke,” adds Baru.

    He laments that while Chinese companies are expanding globally, we are struggling to grow our exports. The trade deficit with China has widened and “we haven’t moved forward with new issues like ecommerce with WTO. Even the trade deals with Europe like the EU FTA hasn’t moved forward.”

    The Chinese government’s ability to work consistently across the entirety of the country is much more versus what Modi can do because of a complicated federal structure and political system, feels Bob Moritz, global chairman, PricewaterhouseCoopers.

    Even in Davos, he says, “Each (Xi and Modi) has had a different approach which is not necessarily their doing, but a history of centuries in terms of systems they have inherited. And each one is thinking out of the box to incrementally enhance that system.”

    ONE WORLD, ONE FAMILY
    Experts argue that strengthening of the Indian Navy, Coast Guard and international maritime cooperation must take priority in foreign policy and security planning. India should strengthen its economic linkages with Indian Ocean countries. Africa should be high on our outreach agenda, suggests Gupta of VIF.

    “Under Prime Minister Modi, foreign policy has been given a lot of attention. India’s image as a net security provider has been built up and is also been seen as a net provider of assistance on capacity building. Many countries are looking up to India for help and assistance as we are seen as benign, non-threatening and helpful. We must build upon this image,” he recommends.

    However, first, it must strengthen the capacity of its institutions, which desperately need upgrades. The ministries of external affairs and defence must act in synergy. “Many countries feel India is not doing enough. But challenges are complex and our capacity to deliver must be improved,” says the former deputy NSA.

    Undoubtedly, India cannot be a leading power without deriving strength from within. While Look East — transformed into Act East — has gained in momentum, Delhi needs to up its game in South East Asia and make connectivity projects operational. What is equally important is to put meat into strategic partnership with each of the South East Asian nations even as soft power quotient has received much desired attention.

    “That all the leaders of ASEAN have agreed to attend the commemorative summit to celebrate 25 years of India’s dialogue partnership with the organisation, 15 years of summitry and five years of strategic partnership, and would be guests on Republic Day is the greatest testimony to New Delhi’s depth and breadth of engagement and understanding in the region, both bilaterally and multilaterally, and reflects Modi’s proactive foreign policy,” explains Professor Baladas Ghoshal, India’s foremost expert on South East Asia.

    “On both China and Pakistan, he (PM Modi) began with extending olive branches to begin a new paradigm in our relationship, but was disappointed with the response. Modi invited Xi Jinping to India, gave him red carpet treatment, but Beijing responded with border intrusions during the latter’s visit and in the subsequent period. Modi’s stance towards China toughened and Dokalam was the result. Pakistan’s perfidy manifested in continuous cross-border terrorism and inciting insurgency in Kashmir,” says veteran academician.

    Veteran diplomat G Parthasarathy also notes, “PM Modi reached out to both Pakistan and China from his very first day in office. Virtually on the day that President Xi arrived in India, his army intruded into Indian territory.”
    The Chinese intrusion in Doklam, however, presents far more complex problems, as it involves Bhutanese territory and Indian security guarantees to Bhutan, points out Parthasarathy.

    PM Modi also needs to provide a new narrative and answer to China’s Belt and Road Initiative, work towards implementation of some of connectivity projects New Delhi had initiated in the South East and seek Japan’s collaboration to further connectivity. To give substance to the concept of India-Africa corridor, India needs to be a little more proactive, as per Ghoshal.

    Relations with Pakistan pose challenges to Modi, as they did to previous administrations. "Despite these provocations, Modi has maintained regular back channel contacts between NSAs, while getting international pressures mounted on Pakistan, by the US and others, to end its support for terrorism. Moreover, the Indian Army has been given a much freer hand to cross the Line of Control, while responding to ISI-sponsored attacks,” points out Parthasarathy.

    The real challenge India has, however, to confront, is the growing military, political and strategic nexus between China and Pakistan, covering nuclear, economic, maritime and military cooperation. "This Sino-Pakistan nexus will, however, remain a long-term challenge, to be imaginatively, firmly and flexibly managed,” he adds.
    Game on.


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